WoW, SW:TOR, and the Rise of Free to Play

World of Warcraft loses 1.1 million subscribers in a single quarter.

Holy crap.

Now, it’s not really surprising that they lost some. It’s the end of an expansion, people are bored, and a lot of people supposedly quit to play Diablo 3.

My wizard massacring demons near Caldeum in Diablo 3And you also have to pull out the usual caveats. For example, it would still have to lose at least seven million more before any other current MMO would have a serious chance of threatening it. It’s also interesting to note that Battle.net has actually gained nearly seven million users — likely because of Diablo.

Still, it’s hard to argue this isn’t a bit of a shocker. WoW may not be dying, but it’s not nearly as healthy as it used to be. This makes for about three million subscribers lost in total over Cataclysm’s lifespan, or a quarter of the game’s peak populace.

The Fall of the Republic…

I find it interesting that this news comes just a few days after the announcement that Star Wars: The Old Republic will be adopting a limited free to play model in November.

I doubt it surprises anyone that SW:TOR went free to play. For one thing, it seems like free to play is the inevitable fate of all online games these days — more on that in a minute.

A cinematic screenshot from Star Wars: The Old RepublicFor another, no one but the most ardent Star Wars fanboys would have claimed SW:TOR was a runaway hit. It had nice sales early on, but as always, it failed to come anywhere close to WoW. And there were a lot of indications that it was struggling — server merges and the like.

But I did not expect it to be free to play just a year after its release. Either it’s doing much more poorly than I thought, free to play isn’t the death knell people make it out to be, or perhaps a bit of both. But I don’t think anyone’s going to claim that this is what Bioware wanted all along, or that SW:TOR is doing as well as anyone could have hoped.

…And the rise of free to play:

Now comes the fun part: trying to identify a pattern where one may not exist based on a pathetically small amount of evidence.

The broken bodies of my fellow raidersOf course, we can’t prove anything based on these two largely unrelated incidents. But it does get one thinking. When it comes to WoW, people will undoubtedly use it to justify their particular narrative — the game is too easy, the game is too hard, there isn’t enough content, there’s too much content, X Game is killing it.

I’ll admit even I’ve caught myself wondering if the upcoming launch of Guild Wars 2 is playing a role. After playing the beta, even I’ve found myself questioning the traditional MMO paradigm. But as I’ve mentioned before, GW2 isn’t directly challenging subscription games with its business model, and the game isn’t even out yet, so that’s probably not a major factor.

I do have a pet narrative that I’m going to use this news to advance, though. I’ve recently come to the conclusion that subscription games are a dying business model. I don’t think all games will be free to play this time next year, or even the year after that, but I do believe the balance of power has irrevocably shifted towards free to play — or buy to play, in the case of GW2.

My Sylvari elementalist in the Guild Wars 2 betaIt’s no longer a question of if a new game will become F2P but when. Many of them grow much more successful once they lose their subscription, and at the very least, it allows a “dying” game to continue making money for its developer for much longer. Guild Wars 2 is one of the most hotly anticipated games in recent memory, and it’s skipping the subscription altogether.

Myself, I was never a big fan of the subscription model, and I’ve grown to dislike it more over time. Not that free to play doesn’t have its pitfalls as well, but subscriptions create a sense of restriction and obligation that is antithetical to what games should be. A colleague of mine summed this up very well when he described the phenomenon as “free to not play.”

I suspect many others feel the same, which is why free to play has gone from a shameful subsection of the industry to almost being the new normal.

My elementalist explores Caledon Forest in the Guild Wars 2 betaSo I don’t think WoW’s lost subscribers and SW:TOR’s lost business model are the dying gasp of pay to play MMOs, but I do think they’re the latest and most dramatic step in a long progression towards free to play — a progression that will probably take several more years to complete.

My Favourite Word

Verisimilitude:

There a couple of reasons why this is my favourite word. Firstly, it’s very fun to say. Try it: ver-i-sim-il-i-tude.

More importantly, though, it’s an interesting concept, and something crucial to understand as a writer.

Roughly translated from its Latin roots, verisimilitude means “the appearance of truth.” It refers to the concept of seeming true to life without actually being true to life.

This is a crucial thing for a writer to understand, regardless of genre. A lot of people will say they look for realism in a story, for things to ring true, but what they really want is verisimilitude. Realism in a story is not something you ever really want to see, and a truly realistic story is something no one would ever read.

For example:

“Once, there was a man who went to work. He answered phones and sent emails all day. Then, he went home, made dinner, and watched American Idol.

The end.”

This is a very realistic story. It is also utterly uninteresting, and no one would ever pay to read it. The fact is that if we want a realistic story, we’ll just live our lives. As much as people may pine for realism in story-telling, even the most mundane story will need to be unrealistic for anyone to enjoy it. Even so-called reality TV is reliant on dramatic twists and flamboyant, absurd complications to maintain people’s interest.

Simply put, reality sucks. All fiction is based on escaping reality, and those who dispute this are fooling themselves.

However, going to the opposite extreme is equally perilous. If you make a story that is completely unrealistic and bereft of real world logic, people won’t be able to identify with characters, won’t be able to suspend their disbelief, and will throw the story away as nonsense.

So verisimilitude is thus the happy medium. Verisimilitude is the “Goldilocks zone” of fiction where things feel real but aren’t. You want to be close enough to reality that people will be able to believe it, to feel that this is a realistic representation of hypothetical people and events, without falling into the doldrums and random pointlessness associated with true reality. It’s a clever form of trickery designed to lull people into accepting your unrealistic story.

Verisimilitude and dialogue:

I was first introduced to the concept of verisimilitude while reading a book of advise on fiction writing. In particular, it came up while discussing dialogue.

The author pointed out that dialogue is an area where people are especially critical, and where a feeling of realism is most important, but they also drew attention to the fact that truly realistic dialogue is actually terrible.

Listen to yourself during your next conversation with someone, then imagine reading that dialogue in a book. You’d demand your money back. Real dialogue is, like, um, y’know, kind of awful and stuff, right?

It's like, y'know, whateverNo author worth their salt will ever produce realistic dialogue, and no reader will ever tolerate it. But at the same time, dialogue that feels unrealistic is a very easy pitfall for new writers and a very common complaint leveled at many works of fiction.

Dialogue is thus one of the most difficult tightropes for a writer to walk. You want it to feel as real as possible without it actually being real.

Verisimilitude and the female armour issue:

One of the issues that many people — including yours truly — raise against “platekinis” and other examples of impractical female armour in fantasy is that they’re unrealistic. This is immediately countered with the notion nothing in fantasy in realistic, and of course, that’s true.

A Blood Elf female demonstrating unrealistic female armourBut this argument ignores the concept of verisimilitude. And fantasy is perhaps the genre where verisimilitude is most important.

At the risk of arrogance, let me use my own work as an example. In my main series of novels, my protagonist is a small female fighter who favours light, leather armour.

However, wars in her world are primarily fought with giant machines called Automatons (which is also why there isn’t much metal left for personal armour, but I digress), and any amount of thought will immediately make clear that her armour would not provide any significant protection against a machine that would be on eye-level with my second-floor apartment.

But yet the thought of her going into battle in street clothes is just fundamentally ridiculous. No one would buy that. Not even me, and I wrote the damn thing.

One of my novel characters, recreating via the MMO AionPeople wear armour in combat. That’s just common sense. Even in a fantasy setting, seeing a woman run into combat with vital organs and major arteries exposed just doesn’t feel right.

The defense of this is usually along the lines of, “because magic,” but that’s logically inconsistent. If armour exists in a fantasy universe, it has a reason to exist. If all you need is some focus for protective magics, then everyone would just wear amulets instead. A platekini is by its very nature an oxymoron.

Fantasy is about creating a logical fictional universe and learning to work within those bounds. Frankly, the idea that you can just throw realism to the wind “because magic” is insulting to fantasy writers everywhere, and it demeans the entire genre and the massive effort that goes into creating a consistent and verisimilar fantasy world.

If any aspiring fantasy authors out there are of the belief that you can wave off logical inconsistencies like this just because your universe contains magic, please divest yourself of this foolish notion now — for your own sake.

Superverisimilarexpialidocious:

So you can see what a crucial concept verisimilitude is to fiction. I would even go so far as to say it is one of the most important things to master as a writer, and it’s an area where there’s always room for improvement. Those that can dance closest to reality while still being unreal are those that will produce the best and most gripping stories.

And it’s a fun word to say.